Car Dealer Scout

How the trade value and profit are worked out

1. Every day we read the car adverts on AutoTrader, Auto Mart, Carfind and auto.co.za, and the newest on Gumtree — dealers and private sellers.
2. Comparables. For each car we find up to 15 of the closest comparable adverts: the same make and model, a year either side, similar mileage, the same engine size and cab where the advert says, and the same condition — new and demo cars are compared only with new and demo, used with used.
3. Mileage. Each comparable’s price is moved to this car’s mileage before we compare: about 0.5% per 10 000 km for cars up to 3 years old, 0.75% for 4–7 years and 1% for older cars — what mileage is worth within the same model on 149 827 adverts. The card shows what that added or took off.
4. Retail value is the middle (median) of those adjusted prices — at least 5 comparables, or the car gets no value.
5. Estimated trade value is the retail value × the trade ratio for the car’s age (90% up to 5 years, 87.5% for 6–10, 86% after) — the same ratio the Car Auction Scout uses, from auction houses’ own book values.
6. Profit at trade is the trade value less the asking price and an estimated R2 000 licence, registration and roadworthy. No transport: every car listed here is a runner you drive home (non-runners are left out). A dealer’s price already includes VAT.

Condition. Adverts that say the car is accident or hail damaged, a non-runner, Code 2, 3 or 4, salvage, sold as is, or needs engine, gearbox or body work are left out (47 today). Service history is shown on the card but not priced: in the adverts, cars without a stated full service history are not advertised for less.

Check it: Far under the market — usually a bait price, a deposit-only price, a typo or a scam. See the car and its papers before you pay anything. Their cards carry this warning, and anything more than 60% under is left out. These are asking prices, not sale prices, and we have not seen the cars.

Buying at auction instead? Car Auction Scout ranks every auction car by profit after repairs, fees and VAT.